Heroes of the Storm Loot Chest Statistical Analysis



I bought 52 Heroes of the Storm loot chests and decided to record the opening and do a statistical analysis of the open rates. I think 52 should give a pretty good result but we can always add more data from others.

I rerolled whenever an open contained 4 Common items since the reroll should be the same as opening a new chest.


Percentage of Total

  • Commons: 211 (71.3%)
  • Rare: 65 (22%)
  • Epic: 16 (5.4%)
  • Legendary: 4 (1.4%)

Ratio to Common

  • Legendary 1:52
  • Epic 1:13
  • Rare 1:3

Full Video

This is the full video of all the opens.

Quality of Total Loot Percentage

Open Cadence

This chart shows loot quality over each individual open. We would need many more chests in order to establish any kind of pattern, probably.


And also on the second open that had 1 rare :wink:
Also the 4th. I’m going to stop tracking and just watch the rest of them now.


FYI I am working on the same for Overwatch.


Shouldn’t you also consider the ratio of commons to legendary? All the ratios, actually.

Edit - I am referring to the total number of commons, rares, etc.


Sure, I can add that explicitly (note the 52 number is because there were more than 52 rolls with rerolls):

  • Legendary 1:52
  • Epic 1:13
  • Rare 1:3


this is a really cool post, we need more stuff like this


I’m doing Overwatch now.



Someone on Reddit recommended including a specific column for Stimpack drops.